Shortly after the big crypto crash in the beginning of October, I told a close friend that I was bearish on Bitcoin unless we could close back above $116K.

He didn't want to believe me. He told me that all evidence pointed to a continued bull run.

I told him I was saving this screenshot for posterity:

In that moment, after failing to break above $116K, I became even more convinced that the bears were in control.

I hate being bearish.

But let's look at some facts:

Bitcoin just fell through its 50 week moving average for the first time since 2021:

The monthly MACD momentum indicator is flipping from bullish to bearish for the first time since January 2022:

We have not been able to convincingly push past the mid $120K range despite a year of some of the most bullish developments imaginable: 

- Massive inflows from the ETFs
- United States Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
- President of the United States buying Bitcoin
- Multiple sovereign wealth funds buying
- Harvard and other influential endowments buying
- Continued deficit spending, global M2 rising
- Multiple corporations stacking in multiple jurisdictions 
- Gold and tech equities setting record high after record high

All of that great news was priced in, and Bitcoin is still basically flat for the past year after briefly hitting a new all time high in October.

So are we entering a bear market? Or have we already been in one without realizing it?

As I wrote in my September update, "my short-to-medium term expectations are currently low."

That remains true today in mid-November, largely because all I've seen is every bullish impulse be beaten back by relentless selling.

My plan this year was to secure enough of a win from this bull market so that I could comfortably ride through a bear and buy when we entered "deep value" territory on the StackWisely cycle index.

I have a second child on the way in early 2026, and I have no intention of watching my net worth drop by 40-80% over the coming year. 

I am experienced enough to know that the sleep deprivation that comes with having a newborn could lead to poor decisions in the depths of a bear market, and therefore I've taken the actions necessary to ensure that I don't do anything stupid if we get a typical bear market drawdown.

There's no guarantee we'll get a huge plunge from here, but personally I'm happy to have the opportunity to buy it if it does come.

Despite all the positive news and inflows, Bitcoin has underperformed most people's expectations this year.

But it's important to remember that we went from $15K -> $125K in a few years.

For people who held from $69K in 2021, seeing less than 2X from previous highs may not be exciting. But those who DCA'd or bought the $15K lows enjoyed fantastic gains.

It's all a matter of perspective.

I've seen different versions of this idea since we set the $124K top in August.

When I posted that the weekly MACD had crossed bearish and that we were seeing all kinds of bearish divergences on high time frames... I was told that we couldn't possibly top on bearish sentiment.

Many people on X seem to think that everyone is bearish, and therefore it's dumb to sell because everyone is bearish.

But to be honest, I see way more people saying that we can't have a top if people are bearish than ACTUAL bears who have sold.

We've also seen tons of big sales from OG wallets.

I remember telling myself in the bear market that when I saw OGs selling in size, I would pay attention because it probably meant the bull was nearly over.

But it's funny, because now that it's happening, I see a new narrative take hold amongst people who are reluctant to sell: "This is just an IPO moment for Bitcoin - this is bullish because new investors are buying the old OG coins!"

While that's a clever framing, it's also just possible that the OG long-term holding whales are once again the smart money exiting near the top of a 3 year bull market.

So where does this leave you?

I've been saying for a while that the best thing to do is create a plan that works for you in bullish and bearish scenarios.

Everyone's situation is different. Some people are in HODL mode others are in stack mode. Some people have an income and others are retired.

But what I will say is that previous Bitcoin bear markets took at least 12 months to bottom. And the last time we lost the 50 week moving average, it took over two years to recover to the same level.

So if this is the beginning of a new downtrend, in my personal opinion it isn't "too late" to sell and secure some profits.

The future is hard to predict. Despite the confluence of a lot of high timeframe indicators, this could end up being a huge bear trap.

But even if it is, it's always possible to re-enter if bulls regain momentum.

But my personal view is that this is basically the last chance to make a plan one way or another.

Many people assume the end of QT by the Fed is bullish.

But the end of QT doesn't mean QE. Although, I expect that will be coming before too long.

My question is - what happens between now and then? Does the longest yield curve inversion in recent history finally come home to roost?

Let's not forget - there is an incredible amount of debt in the system that has yet to be rolled over at significantly higher rates than it was created at. 

Despite best efforts, the 10 year yield is still well over 4%. How much "bad debt" is out there, sitting as a ticking time bomb in commercial real estate, private equity, private credit, household debt, etc.?

People seem to think the Fed can just flip a switch and turn the bull market on by changing the overnight rate and doing QE.

But if there's a real credit crunch, markets could plunge between now and "The Big Print."

And if that happens - cash will absolutely be king.

Cash gives you the option of buying quality assets at firesale prices. 

Buying from forced sellers is the easiest way to get wealthy. It's what I did in March 2020, and it's what I'll do again if / when we see another credit crisis.

Another factor I'm considering these days is just how much BTC is now tied to Trump.

He has promoted it. His family has bought billions.

So what happens if Trump loses support? What happens if Dems regain power in the midterms? Or adopt the Zohran Mamdani approach to politics?

There's a chance that the Bitcoin price could suffer from a perception of hostility returning to the US government.

It also possible that the "quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin" narrative takes hold and deters some people from investing in it. Regardless of how real the threat is, it could be perceived as a threat and encourage people to choose gold over Bitcoin.

In short: There are plenty of legitimate reasons to be bearish in the medium term, and yet I still think the prevailing sentiment is "everyone is bearish, so there's no way we could have topped."

In September I wrote about my hope that the four year cycle would officially end this year.

If we can end the year flat or slightly positive, there's a chance that we can gain some footing in 2026.

Lots of people sold throughout 2025 to front-run a potential top. So maybe we already front-loaded the bear market.

And perhaps the federal government finds a way to flood the markets with currency to keep everything as propped up as possible before the midterms.

The Treasury General Account is full and ready to be run down - so maybe that alone will be enough to push us higher.

The Bitcoin ETF has been a smashing success, and I like to think that BlackRock will do whatever they can to keep the gravy train going.

The biggest bullish catalyst of all would be actual buying by the United States government. But that seems less likely to happen by the day despite claims that they were developing ways to acquire Bitcoin via budget neutral methods. 

I hope the bulls can regain momentum.

But on a practical level, if I see us regain some bullish momentum, it won't be hard to re-enter the market with a significant portion of my cash position.

I don't rule that out; I just currently see that as a lower probability outcome. As much as I wish that weren't the case.

There's always a risk that we have bottomed out, and that we've already seen the worst. But if history is a guide, then breaking the 50 week moving average means we are closer to the beginning of the downtrend than the end.

This is not a knee-jerk post. This bearish momentum as been developing since September, as I pointed out then.

Now that we've broken through the 50 week moving average support, I now think we have a final chance to create and execute a plan that works for each of us in a potential bear market.

We must all decide whether we hodl, sell, stack cash to buy the dip, or continue to DCA.

Keep the bullish possibility in mind, because Bitcoin has a way of surprising us. 

But my biggest advice would be to keep your expectations in line with objective reality and adjust your plans accordingly.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the StackWisely cycle index to see if we make it into the "deep value" range. 

By then, we should see extreme fear and pessimism, as well as very depressing price action. If we get so lucky, that's when it will be time to reload.

Bear markets are a great chance for personal growth, re-focusing on meaningful things that are fully in your control, and getting away from the charts for a while. Whether or not this is the start of a bear market, I wish you all health and happiness for the remainder of 2025.

Sincerely,
Stack