As Bitcoin bores everyone to death, I wanted to share my latest thinking on the market.
We sit on the precipice of "Uptober." October is historically one of the most bullish months for Bitcoin.
And Q4 moves in the year after the halving have historically seen the most violent moves to the upside.
But the point of Stack Wisely is to prepare for all scenarios. Including bearish and bullish scenarios.
My personal hope is that we break the four year cycle narrative. I'd prefer to gain another +10% and end the year slightly up without any froth rather than have a blow off from here. That would create a narrative of an extended bull run into 2026 that could attract more capital.
But I realize that what I hope for doesn't matter at all. The market doesn't care about what I want.
So how have I prepared for what's ahead?
Personally I've already taken enough out of the market so that I will not be disappointed if we fall from here into a traditional bear market.
And I know I'm not alone.
Many people have front-run a potential blow off top to secure gains. Much of this is no doubt due to PTSD from 2021 and 2022 when BTC topped earlier and dropped lower than anyone expected. Many people never sold during the last bull run and are making sure to do the opposite this time.
Ironically, this may mean we've already front-loaded some of the bear market. What if these long boring periods are just mini bear markets? What if the 4 year cycle is already dead, we just won't know it until next year?
Many market participants are also aware that buying in now may mean buying in close to a top.
So there's a good chance that many would prefer to wait until there's either a clear move higher, or we finally break the 4 year cycle. Which could mean we need to wait until 2026 until the market feels confident that we aren't going to crash again.
The end of the four year cycle could be the biggest narrative catalyst Bitcoin has had in a while.
It could move from an asset known for its extreme booms and busts to an asset that is judged based purely on its merits: Finite, neutral, reserve asset.
A superior global reserve asset than gold.
But anyway, how should you be playing this?
I can't give financial advice. But I can share my own expectations.
I've not been bullish on BTC since we had the bearish crossover on the weekly MACD at the end of August.
If you look at the attached picture, you'll understand why.
Every bearish crossover on the weekly that happened after a new all time high has resulted in a significant period of bearish price action: Furthermore, if we look at the Stack Wisely cycle index, you'll see that this latest top pump to $124K set a lower high:
All of this indicates that our current bull run has lost steam.
It needs a big catalyst to inject some life into it, or it needs to fall to prices that entice investors to start stacking hard.
I don't want this to be true, but it's what the charts are telling me. So I act accordingly.
My own personal strategy is not to be 100% in Bitcoin right now, waiting for a final top to sell everything.
I don't see that as a wise path because there's no guarantee that we will get another impulse higher. And even if we do get one, how much higher than $124K will it be? Perhaps not high enough to justify holding 100% and risking a bigger fall from here.
So my strategy has been to secure enough of a "win" from this bull run and now I'm letting the rest of my BTC ride for the next 5 years no matter what happens.
We are up ~600% from the 2022 bottom. It's normal that many market participants are harvesting these gains at this point of the cycle.
But I still think Bitcoin could surprise everyone going into 2026.
The recent price action of Gold, which is surging towards $3,800 / ounce has me convinced that the best is yet to come for Bitcoin.
If we can break the 4 year cycle narrative and start moving higher in 2026, we could finally be off to the races towards $1 million per coin.
Which is why I'm leaving the majority of my cold stored BTC untouched.
I still think it's the best asset to hold over the coming decade+
I still think it's widely misunderstood and under-appreciated, despite being a more mainstream investment asset these days.
But my short-to-medium term expectations are currently low.
As always, the best course of action is to create your plan on Stack Wisely that helps you live well in the short term and minimize the regret of a bear OR a bull market coming in 2026.
For me, that means making sure I have enough BTC to benefit from an extended bull run, but enough out of the market so that I don't regret a fall from here.
.jpeg)
.jpg)